Model Keputusan Terpadu Berbasis Risiko dan Akuntabilitas Data untuk Kebijakan Preservasi Jalan Nasional: Integrasi Prediksi IRI-PCI, Earned Value Management, dan Unit Cost IRMS Pada Koridor Makassar-Parepare An Integrated Decision Model Based On Risk and Data Accountability for National Road Preservation Policy: Integration Of IRI-PCI Prediction, Earned Value Management, and IRMS Unit Cost On The Makassar-Parepare Corridor
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Abstract
Indonesia's national road management remains heavily reactive: segments are typically left to deteriorate until damage becomes visually evident before entering the maintenance program. This study proposes an integrated decision model linking road condition prediction, risk mapping, project performance, and data governance for the 155-km Makassar–Parepare national road corridor. Unlike prior analyses of the same dataset, which focused solely on correlation testing and regression, this study treats those statistical results as inputs to a comprehensive decision framework encompassing a technical-traffic-climate-budget-execution risk map, the relationship between road condition indicators and Ministerial Regulation No. 4/2023 on road functional eligibility, a strategy for strengthening the Pavement Management System (PMS) database, budget accountability mechanisms, and a five-stage implementation roadmap for BBPJN Sulawesi. The analysis draws on 26,818 observation segments (2020–2024), revealing a Pearson correlation of r = –0.2710 (p < 0.001) between IRI and PCI, and r = +0.1898 (p < 0.001) between IRI and AADT, alongside multiple regression models yielding R² = 0.1110 (IRI) and R² = 0.1053 (PCI). An Earned Value Management (EVM) evaluation of 50 projects worth IDR 65.08 billion shows an average CPI of 0.9758 and SPI of 0.9435. Findings indicate that execution risk, not physical deterioration risk alone, determines whether sound technical priorities translate into improved road conditions. The proposed integrated decision model comprises five stages—data integration, priority dashboarding, annual model calibration, IRMS-based budgeting, and EVM control—with an estimated 15–20% budget efficiency potential through preventive maintenance on segments with IRI 6–8 m/km, ahead of costlier reconstruction demand priced at IDR 1,923,900/m².
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